3 & Out: John Middlekauff’s Thanksgiving NFL Picks

Thanksgiving week is here, which means food, family, and – most importantly – football. And this year’s slate? One of the best three-game lineups the NFL has rolled out on Thanksgiving in a long time. Cowboys, Lions, Packers, Chiefs, Ravens, Bengals – big brands everywhere, high stakes everywhere. So before you dive into turkey and stuffing, let’s break down all three matchups and where I’m leaning on each.

Packers (+2.5) at Lions

Detroit got rolled by Green Bay back in Week 1, but that game feels like two NFL lifetimes ago. The Lions are still explosive on offense, but something’s off – especially defensively. They look like they’re sliding back into last year’s late-season version, the one held together by duct tape and hope. When Jameis Winston throws for 350 yards on just 18 completions – with no Malik Nabers – that’s a problem.

The Lions’ defense isn’t right. The injuries are piling up, the secondary leaks big plays, and the front isn’t creating enough disruption. Even the Detroit offensive line – normally a sledgehammer – hasn’t looked as dominant.

Green Bay isn’t a perfect team, but they are physical, fast, and extremely well-coached on defense. Jeff Hafley has that unit humming. And while Jordan Love isn’t lighting the league on fire weekly, the Packers are tough in the trenches and have enough speed to bother Detroit.

I’m rolling with Packers +2.5 in this one, and I really like the moneyline. If you’re going to ride with Green Bay, bet them to win this game outright.

Cowboys (+3) vs Chiefs

This is an incredible Thanksgiving game. The Cowboys just pulled off a wild comeback win that had Stephen A. Smith asking whether it was a “legacy-defining” performance from Dak.

He was fantastic, but the bigger story is that this offense is legitimately fun, explosive, and aggressive. George Pickens – who somehow has more receiving yards than the entire Steelers WR room – is a cheat code. Dallas has its flaws, but when that offense is humming, they can score on anyone.

Kansas City, meanwhile, is in their “play down to the situation but win anyway” mode. They’re not the same machine they were when Tyreek Hill was catching bombs and Travis Kelce was still in his prime, but the Chiefs still find ways to win tight games. Rashee Rice is emerging. The defense is better than people realize. And if this game ends with Harrison Butker drilling a walk-off field goal, no one would be surprised.

But +3 at home, I see value in Dallas. The Cowboys play furious football at home, and the Chiefs have been living in one-score games all season. Dallas has enough offensive juice to keep pace and maybe steal it late. Give me the Cowboys +3.

Bengals (+7) at Ravens

This is the wild card game of the day because Cincinnati’s season has been a roller coaster and the Ravens aren’t quite as invincible as we thought when the season started. Still, Baltimore is the better team, the healthier team (relatively speaking), and the more stable team.

These teams faced off in two thrillers last season: Burrow threw nine touchdowns across two games, both of which were fireworks. And while the Ravens should win the division comfortably (especially with Pittsburgh free-falling), divisional games can get weird.

Seven points feels hefty. I don’t necessarily love it, but I’d still lean toward taking the points. Bengals +7.