Science behind accurate weather alerts

India’s Weather Forecasting Enters a New Era! One month ago, we launched the Bharat Forecast System (BFS), India’s most advanced, fully indigenous weather prediction model. Built by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, it marks a watershed moment in India’s ability to predict and respond to extreme weather events. Over the past 10 years, under the visionary leadership of Hon’ble Prime Minister Sh Narendra Modi , India has made enormous strides in weather and climate science. What was once reliant on foreign models is now led by Indian innovation, more precise, more timely, and more accessible. The Bharat Forecast System is a reflection of this transformation. Here’s what makes it a game-changer: • Double the precision: Earlier models operated at a 12-kilometre resolution. The BFS now works at 6-kilometre resolution, enabling us to predict localised weather conditions with much greater accuracy, especially vital for hilly terrains, coastal zones, and urban areas. • Faster forecasts: BFS runs on India’s new weather supercomputer ARKA, located at IITM Pune. With 11.77 petaflops of computing power and 33 petabytes of storage, ARKA can process billions of weather data points in real time, drastically reducing the time it takes to generate a forecast. • Smarter data integration: BFS uses a blend of data from ISRO satellites, ground stations, ocean buoys, and even information from global partners. This helps the system “see” and simulate weather patterns with far greater clarity. • Open for global science: Unlike many global systems, India is making the BFS data open-access, inviting researchers from around the world to build on our model. It promotes not just national preparedness but global scientific collaboration. What does this mean for the common citizen? Better early warnings before a cyclone hits. More accurate rainfall predictions for farmers. Improved alerts for cloudbursts and flash floods in vulnerable areas. And faster, more targeted disaster response, saving time, resources, and lives. This is not just about supercomputers or models. It is about science serving society, protecting communities, and helping us plan better, from sowing crops to managing cities. With the Bharat Forecast System, India joins the front ranks of nations shaping the future of weather prediction. It is a proud milestone for our scientists and our country, and a strong step forward in building a Viksit Bharat.

⛈️ Weather prediction is powerful – and it saves lives. The chart below shows NOAA’s HRRR model forecast for July 21st in Overland Park, KS. Sadly, one life was lost during this catastrophic flooding event. What’s striking, though, is how accurately the model captured the rainfall volume and timing compared physical raingage data. 👉 The HRRR model provided a 2 hour lead time, showing cumulative rainfall climbing sharply before the storm hit. 👉 Like most models, it sometimes slightly underpredicts or overpredicts rainfall. But overall, it was within 3 hours of the actual event – a remarkable level of precision. 👉 For emergency management, stormwater operations, and city planning, this kind of accuracy is invaluable. At NEER, we provide a Weather API that can automatically pull this NOAA forecast data. Imagine what this means: Automated alerts for high-risk rainfall events. Better calibration of sewer and stormwater models. Data-driven decisions that help protect communities. Severe weather will always be a challenge. But with the right tools, we can turn accurate forecasts into timely action – and prevent future tragedies.

August 29, 2024 - By Newcastle University, "Scientists have developed new guidance and tools that could significantly improve the prediction of life-threatening flash flooding. ----- With human-induced #climatechange leading to more #extremeweather conditions, the need for accurate #earlywarningsystems is more critical now than ever before. New research by an international team of climate experts shows intense, localised, heavy bursts of #rainfall can be caused by a rapid rise of air through clouds and proves that these rises in air can be forecast. The team have developed a unique, cutting-edge modelling system marking a fundamental change in how we identify and forecast life threatening, short-duration, #extremerainfall. Better prediction of these intense #downpours will help provide crucial time for communities to prepare for extreme #weather which can lead to devastating #flashfloods such as was seen in Boscastle in August 2004 or London in August 2022. Published (https://lnkd.in/ejA7j5fn) in the journal #Weather and #Climate Extremes, the study was led by the Met Office and Newcastle University, with support from the Universidad de Costa Rica, San Jose, Costa Rica and the Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznań, Poland. Improving public safety and preparedness Study lead author, Met Office Principal Fellow, and Visiting Professor at Newcastle University’s School of Engineering, Paul Davies, said: “The new model is aimed at enhancing the UK’s resilience to extreme weather events, which are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. This approach addresses the urgent need for improved prediction capabilities and will help both UK and global communities in mitigating the risks associated with increasingly extreme weather events.” Paul added: “In order to understand these extreme rainfall events we have made an exciting discovery: the presence of a three-layered atmospheric structure, consisting of Moist Absolute Unstable Layers sandwiched between a stable upper layer and a near-stable low layer.” The new research focuses on the atmospheric properties of the extreme rainfall environment, with a particular focus on the thermodynamics associated with sub-hourly rainfall production processes. It identifies a distinctive three-layered atmospheric structure crucial to understanding localised downpours. and associated large-scale atmospheric regimes which might enable further-ahead prediction of the occurrence of #extremedownpours and #flashflooding. Study co-author, Hayley Fowler, Professor of #Climate Change Impacts at Newcastle University, added: “I am delighted to help to lead such exciting new research which provides a paradigm shift in thinking about extreme rainfall processes. We will further develop this model into an operational system which can help to deliver on the UN’s call for Early Warnings for All (https://lnkd.in/eY6WChKv), which aims to ensure universal...” Continue reading